START BY LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SCALE (THE BIG PICTURE)

• THERE IS A CLEAR ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS AND CONVECTION.

• DURING WINTER THE MODELS GIVE YOU A PRETTY GOOD APPROXIMATION OF THE SCALE OF MANY EVENTS.
  • But you need to assess the uncertainty in the model forecasts and need to choose which model solution has the best mass and wind fields.

• HOWEVER, THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE PROBLEMS WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS
  • THEREFORE A FORECASTER NEEDS TO ANTICIPATE WHEN CONVECTION MIGHT OCCUR
  • HAS TO ANTICIPATE HOW THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE.

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