PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 17 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007        

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA ...  FLOODING
THREAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SCATTERED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8
WEST...ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KILOMETERS...SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH...10 KT...17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND
1008 MB...29.78 INCHES.

HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE CENTER OF ERIN. NUMEROUS SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FARTHER EAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 400 PM CDT
SATURDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)        11.02 PAST 3 DAYS
SENS RD                          9.33 PAST 3 DAYS
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.50 PAST 3 DAYS
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   8.43 PAST 3 DAYS
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         4.80
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD             3.62

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE			 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
HONDO 8.7E			 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO			 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS				 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE			 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                5.72 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                4.80
MASON				 3.96 
PALACIOS MUNI ARPT               3.86
HASKELL				 3.38
RANDOLPH AFB/UNIVERSAL CITY      3.27


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. 

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...34.1 NORTH...AND 100.8
WEST...NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 11 MPH...MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008
MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KOCIN

FORECAST POSITIONS


INITIAL    18/2100Z 34.1N 100.8W
12HR VT    19/0600Z 35.6N  99.6W
24HR VT    19/1800Z 36.9N  98.6W