PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 21 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007        

... T.D. ERIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINS ARE MOSTLY LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MOISTURE FROM ERIN CONTINUES TO FEED
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TOWARD A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST...ABOUT 10
MILES...16KM...SOUTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA...AND ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KILOMETERS... NORTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 18
MPH...16 KT...29 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...22 KT...40 KM/HR...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
AROUND 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 400 PM CDT
SUNDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)        11.02 3 DAY TOTAL
SENS RD                          9.33 3 DAY TOTAL
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.50 3 DAY TOTAL
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   8.43 3 DAY TOTAL
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         5.51

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE			 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
HONDO 8.7E			 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO			 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS				 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE			 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                5.96 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                5.56
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02


...OKLAHOMA...

GEARY 9.8 WNW                   11.03 
FORT COBB                        9.04 
EL RENO                          8.33 
NORMAN 2.3 NNE                   8.12 
MINCO                            6.43 
MUSTANG 2.1 WNW                  6.38 
WALTERS                          6.15 
EDMOND 1.6 W                     5.46 
OKLAHOMA CITY                    5.39 
APACHE                           5.30 
WATONGA                          4.60
LAWTON MUNI AIRPORT		 4.42 


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING... SHIFTING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO
MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. 

EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...ITS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...ENHANCING
RAINFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY STATES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3
WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 18 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KOCIN

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL    19/2100Z 36.5N  96.3W
12HR VT    20/0600Z 38.5N  93.5W
24HR VT    20/1800Z DISSIPATED...