Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Tropical Depression HARVEY Advisory Number 44
 
Issued 09:00Z Aug 31, 2017
 
Advisory Selection
View advisory number:  53   52   51   50   49   48   47   46   45   44   


TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092017
400 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...S OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 92
WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE HARVEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION ON FRIDAY, AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS,  NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI,
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE, WESTERN TO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO SOUTHERN OHIO.  LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN
TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY.  THESE RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE
FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM FAR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN TENNESSEE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY.

HOWEVER CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
IN AND AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR, AND EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY
MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND INCREASED RIVER AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.


...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4
AM CDT

...ALABAMA...
GASQUE                                8.00                    
BONSECOUR                             7.91                    
GRAND BAY 10.5 NE                     6.81                    
FOLEY 7.4 SW                          6.44                    
ELBERTA                               6.31                    
ORANGE BEACH                          6.03                    
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW               6.01                    
MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT               5.83                    
MOBILE/BATES FIELD                    5.83                    
FAIRHOPE                              5.77                    
GULF SHORES                           5.60                    
SUMMERDALE                            4.73                    
MONTROSE                              4.52                    
DAPHNE 0.4 SW                         4.42                    
FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL 3W         4.35                    
SONNY CALLAHAN ARPT                   4.32                    

...ARKANSAS...
MAMMOTH SPRINGS 2 SSE                 6.42                    

...FLORIDA...
MILTON                                6.92                    
PENSACOLA REGIONAL AIRPORT            6.86                    
UNIVERSITY WEST 2.0 WNW               6.36                    
PACE                                  5.35                    
GULF BREEZE                           5.28                    
ORIOLE BEACH 2 WSW                    3.01                    
CRESTVIEW/BOB SIKES                   2.91                    
APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT                1.83                    

...LOUISIANA...
BAYOU CONWAY                         22.25                    
BAYOU TORO NEAR TORO                 20.62                    
KENNER GULLY AT MARK LEBLEU          18.23                    
CALCASIEU RVR AT OLD TOWN BA         18.15                    
W-14 AT JOE SPEARS RD                17.85                    
W-6 AT WARD LINE ROAD                17.24                    
MOSS BLUFF                           16.70                    
BELFIELD DITCH AT BELFIELD ROAD      16.37                    
IOWA 0.9 ESE                         16.36                    
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT GOOS RD           16.02                    
BAYOU ARSENE AT HECKER ROAD          15.84                    
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT HWY 171           15.74                    
LAKE CHARLES 11.5 SSW                15.41                    
RAGLEY 5.0 SE                        15.18                    
EB L-14 AT IOWA BASEBALL FIELD       14.85                    
INDIAN BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD          14.10                    
TOPSY 4 NNW                          14.08                    
LACASSINE BAYOU AT LORRAIN BRIDGE    13.04                    
ZAVALLA 2 ENE                        12.87                    
SULPHUR 2.2 E                        12.54                    
BON WIER 2 ENE                       12.44                    
HACKBERRY 5 SSE                      12.33                    
CONTRABAND BAYOU AT 18TH STREET      12.28                    
WELSH 0.7 W                          12.26                    
W-4 AT NELSON ROAD                   12.12                    
GILLIS 4 WSW                         12.11                    
FORT POLK                            11.96                    
BUXTON CREEK AT DOUGLAS ROAD         11.21                    
CHOUPIQUE BAYOU AT HWY 90            11.02                    
LACASSINE NATIONAL 2 ENE             10.55                    
BAYOU DINDE AT PICARD ST              9.76                    
LEBLEU SETTLEMENT 2 WNW               9.64                    
FORKED ISLAND 5 ENE                   9.37                    
BUNDICK CREEK NEAR DE RIDDER          9.26                    
PECAN ISLAND 2 E                      9.14                    
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT                9.08                    
NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA                   8.92                    
VERNON - FTS                          8.77                    
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT                   7.14                    
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT                   5.88                    
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT                 5.33                    
ENGLAND AFB/ALEXANDRIA                4.84                    
SLIDELL AIRPORT                       3.82                    
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT            3.17                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
GAUTIER                               8.27                    
SANDHILL CRANE - FTS                  7.90                    
GRAND BAY                             6.06                    
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.6 ESE                 4.61                    
MOSS POINT - TRENT LOTT INTL ARPT     4.55                    
PASCAGOULA                            4.54                    
PEARLINGTON 4.4 N                     3.99                    
JOURDAN RIVER NEAR KILN               3.35                    
TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA             3.15                    
TYLERTOWN 9 WNW                       3.08                    
NATCHEZ/HARDY                         2.91                    
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI                    2.55                    
GULFPORT-BILOXI                       2.40                    

...TEXAS...
CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942               51.88                    
CLEAR CREEK AT I-45                  49.40                    
DAYTON 0.2 E                         49.23                    
MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD          49.20                    
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR                 47.35                    
SANTA FE 0.7 S                       46.70                    
PASADENA 4.4 WNW                     45.74                    
HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD      45.60                    
SOUTH HOUSTON 4.0 SSW                44.91                    
BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD      44.80                    
BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA                44.44                    
FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE                  44.05                    
LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD       43.52                    
HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE      43.38                    
LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE                   43.32                    
WEBSTER 0.4 NW                       43.32                    
LNVA CHEEK CANAL AT DITCH 407        43.11                    
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST         42.32                    
ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD   42.16                    
TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959              42.12                    
BOONDOCKS RD AT TAYLORS BA           41.86                    
ARMAND BAYOU AT PASADENA LAKE        41.20                    
TAYLOR LAKE AT NASA ROAD 1           40.44                    
SH 124 AT HILLEBRANDT BAYOU          38.18                    
MAHAW BAYOU AT ENGLIN RD             37.75                    
JACINTO CITY                         37.60                    
HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610 EAST       37.00                    
TELEPSEN                             36.60                    
MAHAW BAYOU AT BRUSH ISLAND ROAD     36.53                    
FIRST COLONY 4 WSW                   36.34                    
BEAMER DITCH HUGHES RD               36.32                    
LA PORTE 1 N                         36.24                    
BAYTOWN 2 NW                         35.64                    
MOUNT HOUSTON                        35.60                    
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD                 33.37                    
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL             31.26                    
KATY 6 NE                            31.23                    
HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY                   27.88                    
HOUSTON/D.W. HOOKS                   27.01                    
GALVESTON/SCHOLES                    22.84                    
COLLEGE STATION 2 SSW                19.64                    
VICTORIA 3.8 NW                      15.60                    
AUSTIN 4 SSE                         10.28                    
AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT             10.07                    
CORPUS CHRISTI 3.6 S                  6.23                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...TEXAS...
PORT ARANSAS 2 ENE                   132                    
COPANO VILLAGE 1 ENE                 125                    
LAMAR 2 SSW                          110                    
ROCKPORT 1 S                         108                    
TAFT 5 NNE                            90                    
MAGNOLIA BEACH 8 ESE                  79                    
EDNA                                  73                    
FLOUR BLUFF 4 ESE                     72                    
ARANSAS PASS 7 SE                     71                    
CLEAR LAKE SHORES 1 WSW               71                    
BRAZOS 451                            70                    
PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT            69                    
CORPUS CHRISTI NAS 5 SE               65                    
GANADO 7 S                            64                    
LA WARD                               64                    
BAYOU VISTA 13 E                      61                    
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT       58                    
QUINTANA 1 NE                         58                    
SUGAR LAND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT          58                    
JONES CREEK 9 SW                      55                    
LA MARQUE 2 E                         55                    
FREEPORT 1 ESE                        54                    
SAN LEON 19 E                         54                    
MISSOURI CITY 1 SE                    53                    
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT                 53                    
WEBSTER                               53                    
BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT                52                    
GONZALES AIRPORT                      52                    
NASSAU BAY                            52                    
TEXAS CITY 4 ENE                      52                    


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER SANTORELLI

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 31/0900Z 32.3N 92W
12HR VT 31/1800Z 33.5N 90.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 01/0600Z 35.1N 88.6W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 01/1800Z 36.3N 86.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 02/0600Z 37.5N 85.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION