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WPC Verification

Object-Oriented QPF Verification (MODE)
 
MODE verification is archived for 2 years.

24 Hr QPF ending at 12 UTC on:
07/20/2024

WPC Forecast (24hr)
Image Not Available
Observed(MRMS Pass 2-prelim)
Image Not Available
Objects (0.50 inch)
Image Not Available
CONUS Daily CSI Ranking:
cmc........0.289 ukmet......0.279 wpcblend...0.255 ndfd.......0.248 wpc........0.247 nbm_07Z....0.246 hrefbm.....0.241 hrrr.......0.217 cmc_reg....0.217 mmebc......0.214 nbm.......0.212 ecmwf......0.211 fv3lam.....0.203 arw2.......0.198 nam12......0.185 gfs........0.185 arw........0.185 namnest....0.179 rrfse1tlbm..0.166 rrfsa.....0.148 nbmp_07Z...-999 nbmp.......-999
Forecasted objects are shaded/Observed objects are contoured.
Any unmatched objects are displayedd in gray.
Background
The Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) is an object-oriented verification technique that is part of the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package developed by the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) . Object-oriented verification methods have been developed in an attempt to better account for spatial discontinuities between forecast and observed precipitation as well as provide more specific information about forecast quality than can be obtained from traditional verification measures (threat score, bias, etc.) alone. These techniques are considered particularly useful for evaluating high resolution model guidance. Traditional verification methods often struggle to accurately assess the performance of high resolution models since even small spatial errors can result in the forecast being penalized twice (once for missing the observed precipitation and a second time for giving a false alarm). The goal of the MODE tool is to evaluate forecast quality in a manner similar to a forecaster completing a subjective forecast evaluation.
How it Works
MODE identifies precipitation objects in both the forecast and observed fields at a number of different thresholds. It then uses a variety of object characteristics (ex: distance between objects, size of objects, angle of orientation, etc.) to determine the degree of similarity between objects in the forecast and observed fields. Objects that are found to be similar to one another are considered “matched”, while those that are not similar are considered “unmatched”. Unmatched objects in the forecast field are equivalent to a false alarm. Unmatched objects in the observed field are equivalent to a miss. Examples of the graphical verification output produced by MODE are below. Matched objects are indicated in the same color in both the forecast and the observed fields. In the cases below, the colored objects are matched with one another. Unmatched objects are always displayed as gray. Gray contours like in the example on the left represent an unmatched forecast objects (false alarm) and gray shaded areas like in the example on the right in California represent an unmatched observation object (miss).

In addition to the graphical output, MODE also provides statistical information for each matched object. This information includes a parameter called the interest value, which is an overall measure of similarity between objects in the forecast and observed fields. The interest value ranges from 0 to 1, with a value of 0.70 required for objects to be considered matched. In addition to the interest value, MODE also provides information about the following: centroid distance: the distance between the center of a forecast object and the center of the corresponding observed object (smaller is good); angle: for non-circular objects gives a measure of orientation errors (smaller is good); forecast area: the number of grid points enclosed in a forecast object; observation area: the number of grid points enclosed in the analysis object; intersect area: the number of grid points in both the forecast and the observation objects. These stats can be found in the table below the image and are color coded to match each object that is identified.
Image Not Available Image Not Available
MODE at WPC
MODE verification is available for Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 forecasts of 24 hr precipitation valid at 1200 UTC. The preliminary verification uses MRMS radar-derived precipitation observations and is available the same day. The final verification uses Stage IV precipitation observations and is available two days later. In addition to the WPC forecast, verification is also available for model forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, NBMv3.2, NAM 12km, CMC, UKMET, NAM CONUS Nest, HRRR, HREF Blended Mean, GEM Regional, the NCEP high resolution window runs (ARW, ARW Member2, and NMMB), and a WPC-generated multi-model ensemble bias corrected (MMEBC; see presentations MMEBC QPF Part I and MMEBC QPF Part II). All forecasts and observations are re-gridded to a 5 km grid prior to verification. In order to compare WPC forecasts to the model data available at the time they were generated, the forecast lead times are offset such that the 24 hr (Day 1), 48 hr (Day 2), and 72 hr (Day 3) WPC forecasts are compared to the 36 hr, 60 hr, and 84 hr model forecasts, respectively. Some select MODE settings can be found here: MODE Settings
Additional References
Davis, C., B. Brown, and R. Bullock, 2006: Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part I: Methodology and application to mesoscale rain areas. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1772-1784.

Davis, C., B. Brown, and R. Bullock, 2006: Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part II: Application to convective rain systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1785-1795.


Model Evaluation Tools (MET) was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) through grants from the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NCAR is sponsored by the United States National Science Foundation.
 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Jul-2024 19:39:22 GMT