Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 30 2019 - 12Z Wed Apr 03 2019 There remains very good agreement in models and ensembles for a strong ridge/upper high building over the mainland during the weekend and persisting into next week which would keep temperatures above normal for this time of the year, with a handful of record daily highs possible. There is some question towards the end of the period on if/how much undercutting of the ridge happens which may bring in southerly flow and a slight increase in precipitation chances by the end of the period to parts of the Peninsula and Southern Coast. Elsewhere, things continue to look a bit more chaotic farther west across the North Pacific, Aleutians, and the Bering Sea. Most of the guidance continues to show an initial regime of strong flow around an upper level low well to the west of the island chain, pushing a surface front through the Western Bering on day 4. After this, there should be gradual elongation of upper troughing over the North Pacific and one or more surface lows tracking south of the Aleutians. There is fairly good agreement overall on the synoptic setup, but the details and timing start to diverge more by mid-period. By day 8 (Wed), the ensemble means generally suggest that the strongest low pressure over the North Pacific should track into the western Aleutians. The WPC progs started with a majority blend of the deterministic models (06z GFS/00z ECMWF), with smaller contributions from ensemble mean guidance (namely the GEFS/ECENS/NAEFS). For day 5 and beyond, began increasing the weighting of the ensemble means to try and mitigate the smaller scale unpredictable features and differences. This maintains good continuity with yesterdays forecast as well. Santorelli Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php -No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html