Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 527 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 03 2020 - 12Z Sun Jun 07 2020 ...Overview and Weather Hazards/Threats... A mid/upper-level ridge centered across the Beaufort Sea/Arctic Ocean is expected to meander over the Beaufort/Arctic and only slowly weaken by next weekend. This favors above average temperatures for western mainland Alaska into parts of the Interior to start the period but will trend cooler with time. High temperatures in the 70s for some Interior locations will be about 5 to 15 deg F above average and cooler than the short term. To the south, an upper low south of Kodiak will slowly move eastward then southeastward to be replaced by another from northeastern Russia which will bring cooler temperatures to western areas. Weak mid-level flow near the Alaska Range to the Tanana Valley will promote scattered showers and some convection through the period, some of which could be locally modest in amounts. Additional light rainfall will be possible over Southeastern areas especially on Wednesday as a surface trough lingers over the Gulf in the wake of a frontal passage in the short term. By next weekend, a system over the central North Pacific will creep northeastward but likely remain well south of the area. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest 12Z guidance mostly aligned with the track of the old parent low through the southern Gulf and then southeastward, though the GFS was just to the southeast of the better consensus of the ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian. The models/ensembles showed good agreement to the north with the nearly stationary upper high that may maintain itself into next weekend. To the west, better agreement existed with a weak upper low out of northeastern Russia that should maintain itself across the Bering, but may not manifest itself much down to the surface. Consensus approach was adequate there. Farther south, models agreed on the track/speed of the north central Pacific system until later in the week when the GFS/Canadian left the better consensus of the ECMWF and part of each ensemble system (GEFS a bit farther west like the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean a bit farther east like the ECMWF). Preferred to stay near the ECMWF for this system which should continue on a more easterly rather than northerly trajectory, but confidence was no better than average. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html