Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 11 2020 - 12Z Sat Aug 15 2020
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
A Bering/Aleutian system will be the focus early next week as it
moves eastward into the Gulf by Friday. The 12Z models and
ensembles offered a reasonable clustering for most of the features
over the area through next Thu/Fri, and a consensus blend was
sufficient. After a split in the deterministic/ensemble guidance
yesterday, there seemed to be a consensus on an intermediate
timing of the Bering/Aleutian system today. Just enough downstream
riding, albeit weak, will help to temporarily slow the system a
bit before the ridge erodes over southwestern areas late Fri into
Sat and the system continues eastward. With troughing remaining
over the Arctic and ridging to the south of the Gulf in the
mid-latitudes, a general eastward track is expected. The system
will likely head into the Panhandle but perhaps dip southeastward
depending on the flow. Heights will remain rather steady over the
North Slope/Brooks Range Wed-Sat.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Bering/Aleutian system will bring showers/rain initially to the
Aleutians with breezy conditions as well as the modest parent low
scrapes the islands. Expect light to modest rainfall into the
AKPen as the warm front and triple point approach early Wed. Some
locally heavier rainfall is possible on southeast-facing and
terrain-enhanced areas over Kodiak, but overall rainfall will be
modest. Rain will spread eastward across Southcentral and
especially the southern/southeastern Kenai as the triple point
takes over in the Gulf. Rainfall amounts are more uncertain into
the Panhandle. Daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal
along southern coastal areas but warmer than normal over the
Interior. Overnight mins will trend a bit milder than normal
through the end of the week.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html