Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 551 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Aug 11 2020 - 12Z Sat Aug 15 2020 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... A Bering/Aleutian system will be the focus early next week as it moves eastward into the Gulf by Friday. The 12Z models and ensembles offered a reasonable clustering for most of the features over the area through next Thu/Fri, and a consensus blend was sufficient. After a split in the deterministic/ensemble guidance yesterday, there seemed to be a consensus on an intermediate timing of the Bering/Aleutian system today. Just enough downstream riding, albeit weak, will help to temporarily slow the system a bit before the ridge erodes over southwestern areas late Fri into Sat and the system continues eastward. With troughing remaining over the Arctic and ridging to the south of the Gulf in the mid-latitudes, a general eastward track is expected. The system will likely head into the Panhandle but perhaps dip southeastward depending on the flow. Heights will remain rather steady over the North Slope/Brooks Range Wed-Sat. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Bering/Aleutian system will bring showers/rain initially to the Aleutians with breezy conditions as well as the modest parent low scrapes the islands. Expect light to modest rainfall into the AKPen as the warm front and triple point approach early Wed. Some locally heavier rainfall is possible on southeast-facing and terrain-enhanced areas over Kodiak, but overall rainfall will be modest. Rain will spread eastward across Southcentral and especially the southern/southeastern Kenai as the triple point takes over in the Gulf. Rainfall amounts are more uncertain into the Panhandle. Daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal along southern coastal areas but warmer than normal over the Interior. Overnight mins will trend a bit milder than normal through the end of the week. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html