Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 31 2020 - 12Z Fri Sep 04 2020
...A dynamic storm to bring enhanced winds/seas/rainfall to the
Gulf of Alaska and southern/southeast Alaska early next week...
...Guidance Assessment/Predictability and Weather
Highlights/Threats...
Two main flow streams will maintain an active weather pattern for
Alaska for at least the next week. Northern stream energy transfer
and adverse weather focus into a cooled Interior seems on tap into
Monday. However, details and focus with an unsettling later series
of individual systems to work into a larger scale Bering Sea and
Interior mean upper trough position remain less certain.
Underneath, a potent upper jet will race across the northern
Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska. Early week energy transfer and deep
tropical moisture plume advection with precipitable water values
of 1.5-2" will be associated with the remnants of former west
Pacific Typhoon Bevi. This sets the stage for dynamic storm
development. Decided to use the 12 UTC GFS as the base model next
week whose early trends to hold the main storm track southward
seem to best fit the upper jet flow punch and stream separation.
This was collaborated with the local Alaskan offices. Accordingly,
expect enhanced winds/seas/rainfall for the Gulf of Alaska and
southern/southeast Alaska by early next week. Heaviest rainfall
will focus over favored southern Alaska to southeast Panhandle
terrain into early next week. However, models and ensembles
continue to offer run to run issues later period with embedded
system timings and intermittent stream interactions, so continuity
is less than stellar in this complex and progressive pattern.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland
Alaska, Sun-Mon, Aug 30-Aug 31.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland
Alaska, Mon-Wed, Aug 31-Sep 2.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Sun-Mon, Aug 30-Aug 31.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html