Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019
Valid 12Z Mon May 20 2019 - 12Z Fri May 24 2019
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived from
a blend of quite capatable GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means days 4-8.
Manual adjustments were applied to add depth to offshore lows with
favorable support to offset the blending process, albeit with
uncertainty consideration. Deterministic detail from the GFS/ECMWF
was only injected very early in the forecast period due to quickly
increasing forecast variance and run to run model continuity
issues.
...Weather Highlights and Hazards...
Warming upper ridging should persist over much of mainland Alaska
next week. Underneath, mid-upper level troughing and unsettled
weather centered from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska early
next week will increasingly refocus and amplify to the south of
the Aleutians mid-later next week. This supports potential for
deepening lows that would mainly offer maritime threats.
Otherwise, expect a period with relatively benign weather for much
of the state with limited weather hazard risks.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html