Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 08 2019 - 12Z Fri Jul 12 2019 ...Record heat for much of South-central Alaska... ...Guidance and Predictability Assessment... The intense blocking pattern that has been anchored over the region the better part of the last week plus will slowly weaken and drift to the west. This will favor the trough over the Bering Sea to move eastward and this is supported by model guidance and the means. As the ridge weakens, shortwave energy will ride the top near the Beaufort Sea and send a front into north Alaska; cooler temperatures will usher into the north and northeast by the end of the period. The latest GFS has maintained being the progressive solution, with the ECWMF being close to the center of cluster. The CMC appeared to be an outlier as it becomes out of phase with the rest of the guidance fairly early on in the forecast period by continuing to hold onto the ridge over parts of the mainland. Given the duration of the current blocking pattern and its intensity, and per input from an Alaska WFO forecaster, the evolution of the ridge may resemble closer to the CMC than the other solutions that quickly transition out of ridging. The ensemble meas had a better handle on timing and placement of this pattern change than any individual global model. The blend for this forecast period was heavy on the ECWMF ensemble, NAEFS and GEFS means with a nudge toward the CMC. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... For much of the extended period temperatures will be well-above normal across portions of Alaska, particularly for the south-central locations. Daily highs near or above 90F could easily tie, or break records this weekend, possibly into early next week. Precipitation chances will be limited to near the Brooks Range and northeastern Alaska as the front moves east/southeastward, eventually into the Panhandle as the front dips southward. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue over a vast portion of the central and southern/southeast Alaska as the hot and dry conditions prevail. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 11. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Jul 7. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 11. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Jul 7. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html