Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019 - 12Z Thu Jul 18 2019 Models/ensembles show general agreement that upper ridging should gradually weaken across central/northern mainland Alaska through the extended forecast period. Arctic shortwave energy should generally remain north of the upper ridge, potentially amplifying and reaching the North Slope by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, a broad and persistent upper-level low initially across the Bering Sea on Sun should gradually shift eastward, reaching the Gulf of Alaska by next Tue-Wed. A couple shortwaves rotating around the upper low should move a couple surface low pressure systems across/near the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf, the first passing south of the Peninsula on by Sun and the next crossing the Peninsula and moving into the Gulf Mon-Wed. Model consensus was a bit better than average with respect to forecast details given relatively good large scale agreement. Thus,a blend of the ECMWF and GFS served as a forecast starting point during days 4-5 (Sun-Mon), with gradually increasing weight placed on ECENS/GEFS ensemble means during days 6-8 (Tue-Thu). In general, this pattern should favor continued above average temperatures across much of Alaska, albeit not to the extreme degree seen recently. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the forecast period, initially most common across the Alaska Peninsula and southern/central mainland Alaska, showers could also develop across the North Slope by the middle of next week as the upper ridge weakens, opening the door to potential shortwave energy passing overhead. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html