Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019 - 12Z Fri Jul 19 2019
Model consensus continues the trend to slowly weaken the upper
ridging over central/northern portions of Alaska, however they
have shifted further south than previous runs. The preferred blend
was heavier with the 12Z GFS and also utilized 00Z CMC/ECWMF/UKMET
and the ensemble means.
This setup up will be favorable for a wetter and cooler than
average regime for northern Alaska. Arctic shortwave energy should
generally remain north of the upper ridge, potentially amplifying
and reaching the North Slope by the middle of next week. The low
over the Bering Sea will shift eastward into the the Gulf of
Alaska by midweek; shortwave energy rotating through will send a
couple of cold fronts over the Peninsula
and into the Gulf.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much
of the forecast period, initially most common across the Alaska
Peninsula and southern/central mainland Alaska, showers could also
develop across the North Slope by the middle of next week as the
upper ridge weakens, opening the door to potential shortwave
energy passing overhead.
Campbell/Ryan
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html