Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 30 2019 - 12Z Sat Aug 03 2019 The overall flow pattern over Alaska should be fairly progressive during the medium range period. This features an upper level low moving into northwest mainland Alaska before lifting north into the Arctic, which should push a cold front into western Alaska before weakening by the end of next week. Meanwhile, several shortwaves/fronts should push from the Bering Sea to the Gulf, with a potentially stronger system moving into the Bering Sea by next weekend. In general, deterministic solutions showed relatively good consensus for days 4-5 (Tues-Wed) and so a majority blend of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC as used as a starting point for that time. After this time, solutions begin to diverge with respect to both timing and details of individual systems and so contributions from the ensemble means was quickly increased after day 5. Did continue slight contributions from the ECMWF through day 8 due to its better agreement with the ensemble means through the period and especially with maintaining weaker ridging across the western coast of Alaska while the latest GFS runs are noticeably stronger moving into late next week. This approach agrees well with yesterday's forecast as well as with continuity downstream across the CONUS. This pattern will support scattered showers across much of the state as shortwave energy passes over Alaska and a more amplified trough begins to take shape across the Bering Sea late next week. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html