Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
618 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2020
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2020 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2020
...A Stormy Pattern for Alaska...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Threats
Highlights...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived
from a composite blend of reasonably well clustered guidance from
the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET Sunday-Monday along with the 19 UTC
National Blend of Models. Opted to switch to a blend of the 12 UTC
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means Tuesday-next Thursday amid growing
forecast spread along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models to
maintain max continuity. This forecast strategy has been
collaborated with Alaskan offices for this active and stormy
weather pattern.
Mid-upper level trough and jet progression northeastward over the
Bering Sea will support a well developed surface low/frontal
system this weekend. This storm presents a maritime threat with
hazardous coastal conditions including high winds into western
Alaska. Heavy snows will translate inland over the Interior as
precursor much warmer than normal temperatures cool. Energy
transference downstream will then support low/system formations
over the Gulf of Alaska next week, but guidance has trended weaker
aloft in this flow with more northern stream energy working
eastward over an unsettled Interior/North Slope. This pattern
still offers a maritime threat over the Gulf of Alaska along with
precipitation potential for the southern/southeastern Alaskan
tier. Upstream, there remains a decent signal for the gradual
approach of amplified mid-upper level closed low/trough and
deepened low over the north Pacific to the Aleutians by next
midweek.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun,
Apr 4-Apr 5.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Apr
4-Apr 5.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sat, Apr 4.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html