Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
552 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 04 2020 - 12Z Mon Jun 08 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Upper pattern will be driven by a slowly eastward-moving upper
high just north of the North Slope as well as an incoming upper
low from the Bering Sea/Strait. An upper low in the Gulf on
Thursday will slowly sink southeastward. The models and ensembles
have been in good agreement over the past few days and a
deterministic blend of the recent 12Z guidance sufficed to start
(Thu-Sat). By next Sat-Mon, the 12Z GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble
means represented a good middle ground as the Bering upper low
pushes into Bristol Bay while a North Pacific system lifts toward
50N. The Interior will remain separated from the height anomaly
centers in the col.
...Weather Hazards/Threats...
Above average temperatures for western mainland Alaska will trend
a bit cooler with time as the upper low brings cooler temperatures
to southwestern areas. Weak mid-level flow near the Alaska Range
to the Tanana Valley will promote scattered showers and some
convection through the period, some of which could be locally
modest in amounts. Temperatures will be within several degrees of
normal between the Alaska and Brooks Range, but near to below
normal over Southcentral to the Panhandle. By next weekend, a
system over the central North Pacific will likely remain well
south of the area.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html