Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 28 2021 - 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021
...Guidance/Predictability Evaluation...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived
from a general blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/WPC continuity for
the first half of the forecast period, and then generally the
GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensemble means for the second half
of the forecast period owing to growing model forecast spread and
uncertainty.
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Threats Highlights...
Upper level shortwaves interacting with an arctic frontal boundary
will likely support organized precipitation across portions of
northern and Interior Alaska. In particular, an organized low
pressure system tracking to the north of the North Slope by Friday
will bring increased chances for enhanced precipitation inland
across the North Slope/Brooks Range and the eastern Interior.
Additional shortwave energy rotating down from the Arctic Ocean
will also favor organized precipitation over the northern half of
the state into the weekend. This pattern supports colder than
normal temperatures down across much of the state.
Meanwhile to the south, an energetic system will track across the
northeastern Gulf on Saturday, and this system will bring the
potential for windy conditions with some enhanced weekend
precipitation for portions of Southeast Alaska, particularly
across the Panhandle region. Upstream, there is much more
uncertainty with system development and progression days 6-8 for
Pacific systems moving across the Aleutians/Bering Sea.
Schichtel/Hamrick
Hazards:
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Aug
27-Aug 28.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Fri-Sat, Aug 27-Aug 28.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland
Alaska, Fri-Sat, Aug 27-Aug 28.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sat-Sun, Aug
28-Aug 29.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html