Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 506 PM EST Sun Jan 09 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 13 2022 - 12Z Mon Jan 17 2022 ...Guidance/Uncertainty assessment and Weather Pattern/Hazard Highlights... The 12 UTC models have come into better agreement today through medium range time scales, bolstering forecast confidence given generally good ensemble support. A composite blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian seems to provide a good forecast starting point and maintained good WPC product continuity in a pattern with slightly above normal forecast confidence. The composite tends to mitigate the less predictable smaller scale differences in otherwise now reasonably well clustered solutions days 4-8 (Thursday-next Monday). Guidance agrees that an amplified Arctic stream upper trough will settle over the North Slope/Brooks Range and northern Interior to offer some cooling and snow potential into mid-late week. A moderating upper ridge is expected to build northwestward from western Canada into mainland Alaska well over-top a stormy maritime pattern held down over the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. Guidance differences have become less problematic with varied embedded systems within the models, albeit with some pause considering recent run to run issues with the still complex series of Gulf of Alaskan lows and interaction with the aforementioned upper ridge. The preferred composite still maintains a decently amplified upper ridge that seems most reasonable considering recent flow nature. While multiple systems are expected to affect a broad area from the Aleutians through the Southeast this period, the pattern seems to best favor a south-central AK coastal precipitation focus whose threat along with enhanced wind flow may be maximized Thursday/Friday with deepened Gulf low approach. There is also an increasing guidance signal in support of additional strong low genesis and track to the Aleutians from next weekend into early next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html