Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 340 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 12Z Mon Feb 21 2022 ...Quite a stormy pattern for Alaska continues through next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance still offers a reasonably similar larger scale flow evolution through medium range time scales and predictability is good that the pattern will produce a number of well organized stormy systems. However, there remain issues with the timing and focus of embedded systems. Different guidance camp solution clusters are evident as early as Day4/Thursday and variance increases through this forecast period. Even so, a composite of the best clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with some manual edits seems to overall present a reasonable forecast for days 4-8 with respect to WPC product continuity. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Much more in a series of highly unsettling storms seem on tap for next week, both with several deep lows back into the Aleutians and as ample energies from multiple systems break downstream across Southwest Alaska, the AKpen/Kodiak Island, south-central Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska. System timing variance is not ideally set through medium range time frames, but has marginally improved within an overall stormy pattern that offers above normal predictability. Expect several more in a series of deep and relatively slow moving storms for the Aleutians after an already stormy next couple of days. These additional systems are expected Wednesday/Thursday and possibly again next weekend, each with the potential for high winds/waves and wrapping rains. System energies progressing downstream should spread a focus for deepened moisture fueling heavy precipitation from a warmed Southwest AK and the AKpen/Kodiak Island through southern/southeast AK Wednesday/Thursday, and again across this broad region late next week into next weekend. This would include a threat for multi-day heavy coastal rains and inland/terrain enhancing snows. Meanwhile, expect lingering but generally modest northern stream upper troughing from the North Slope down into the north-central Interior, but limited moisture and snow potential outside most favored terrain in flow dominated by surface high pressure. A complicated transition into/through next weekend may present renewed/more amplified upper trough development that would support unsettled conditions including local snows. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal over a warmed southern Interior, but still cold enough for a much better chance for organized snows considering favorable upper support in closer proximity to each of a main series of aforementioned southern stream storm track as impulses work through a mean upper ridge position. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html