Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 738 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 06 2022 - 12Z Sun Apr 10 2022 ...Overview... A general pattern of upper troughing is forecast to persist through much of next week across western Alaska and the Bering Sea, with periodic reorienting and reloading and a slight eastward shift. This should generally keep the storm track south of the Aleutians, as several pieces of energy attempt to break off from the trough sending surface lows into the Gulf. Likely the strongest low should track northeastward toward the Panhandle Wednesday-Thursday. This pattern will continue to promote a wet pattern for southern Alaska, particularly over the Panhandle, with Mainland Alaska remaining mostly dry and cold. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance continues to show fairly good clustering with the overall pattern to utilize the deterministic solutions early with more weighting towards the 12z ECMWF and GFS which seemed to represent something closest to the ensemble means. After day 5, a piece of energy may try to break off the base of the trough forming a closed low over/near southern Alaska. The CMC is farthest west with this, keeping a closed low lingering over the Bering Sea due to a much blockier ridge over the western Aleutians. Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF show some sort of weak troughing breaking through the ridge which acts to push the low farther into the Gulf, although the ECMWF is notably stronger with this than the GFS. The ensemble means are expectedly more washed out than their deterministic counterparts, but generally seem to support something closer to that of the GFS and ECMWF. Due to these uncertainties, the WPC forecast leaned increasingly more towards the ensemble means to help mitigate the differences somewhat. Used the 12z GEFS/NAEFS as 00z ECENS data was not available at time of product generation due to local IT issues. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Precipitation is possible over southern parts of Alaska from the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula east into Southcentral Alaska and the Panhandle through much of next week near low pressure systems. Some rain/snow amounts could be enhanced at times especially for the Southcentral/Panhandle regions, but the heaviest totals through the period will be dependent on exact low tracks and timing. One period of precipitation enhancement could be around midweek as moist inflow increases ahead of a low headed for the Panhandle. In fact, the forecast continues to indicate southern portions of the Panhandle may receive the most precipitation overall, but as it falls over a several day period, it should not be too hazardous. Interior Alaska should see generally dry conditions as the storm track stays to the south, though scattered snow showers cannot be ruled out. Periods of gusty winds are also possible over the Gulf and Panhandle with the midweek low pressure system, and breezy northwest winds may impact the Aleutians late in the week. Near to below average high temperatures forecast for Tuesday across much of the state may ease slightly as the week progresses. The Brooks Range and the North Slope in particular could be above normal later in the week for highs, moderating more towards normal. These colder temperatures may keep river ice breakups on hold a little later than normal, especially across parts of the interior. The Panhandle can expect to see below normal highs and around average lows through the period owing to mostly cloudy skies and wet conditions. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html