Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
633 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 12Z Mon May 30 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 03 2022
...Overview...
Persistent upper ridging centered over Mainland Alaska looks to
remain in place through much of next week. This will separate an
upper low well north of Alaska (which may send some troughing into
the North Slope region) from a train of upper level/surface lows
in the North Pacific and keep much of the interior mostly dry and
very warm. Models suggest one fairly strong low should lift into
the Gulf of Alaska Monday-Thursday with modest AKpen/Kodiak Island
centered coastal and maritime rain/wind threats. Meanwhile, a weak
upper low will drop southward through the far western Aleutians
into Mon as it weakens in favor of another low and main/lead
triple point surface lows slated to translate/transition eastward
from just to the south of the unsettled Aleutians to the Gulf of
Alaska mid-later next week.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Guidance solutions seem pretty well clustered overall and a 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend to smooth the rough edges
seems reasonable for days 4/5 (Monday/Tuesday) for much of the
Alaskan domain and vicinity. Beyond that, the 12 UTC GFS seems
best clustered with the GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for a
smoother blend into days 6-8 (next Wednesday-Friday). This
generally maintains good WPC product continuity in a period of
above normal predictability through much of the forecast period.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights...
Precipitation across most of Mainland Alaska should be generally
very light, and tending to focus along/near a frontal boundary
across the northern portion of the state this weekend. By early
next week, some increasing precipitation chances could move in
towards the eastern Aleutians/Southern Coast/Panhandle with
maritime wind threats as well associated with the surface lows in
the Gulf. Much of interior Alaska will be quite warm with daytime
highs averaging near 20 degrees above normal for some areas and
fire weather a possible concern in the drier locations. Initial
troughing may bring temperatures below normal across the North
Slope region this weekend along with passing precipitation, but
moderate back towards normal as the upper ridge edges into the
region by next week.
Schichtel
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html