Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 633 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Valid 12Z Mon May 30 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 03 2022 ...Overview... Persistent upper ridging centered over Mainland Alaska looks to remain in place through much of next week. This will separate an upper low well north of Alaska (which may send some troughing into the North Slope region) from a train of upper level/surface lows in the North Pacific and keep much of the interior mostly dry and very warm. Models suggest one fairly strong low should lift into the Gulf of Alaska Monday-Thursday with modest AKpen/Kodiak Island centered coastal and maritime rain/wind threats. Meanwhile, a weak upper low will drop southward through the far western Aleutians into Mon as it weakens in favor of another low and main/lead triple point surface lows slated to translate/transition eastward from just to the south of the unsettled Aleutians to the Gulf of Alaska mid-later next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance solutions seem pretty well clustered overall and a 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend to smooth the rough edges seems reasonable for days 4/5 (Monday/Tuesday) for much of the Alaskan domain and vicinity. Beyond that, the 12 UTC GFS seems best clustered with the GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for a smoother blend into days 6-8 (next Wednesday-Friday). This generally maintains good WPC product continuity in a period of above normal predictability through much of the forecast period. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Precipitation across most of Mainland Alaska should be generally very light, and tending to focus along/near a frontal boundary across the northern portion of the state this weekend. By early next week, some increasing precipitation chances could move in towards the eastern Aleutians/Southern Coast/Panhandle with maritime wind threats as well associated with the surface lows in the Gulf. Much of interior Alaska will be quite warm with daytime highs averaging near 20 degrees above normal for some areas and fire weather a possible concern in the drier locations. Initial troughing may bring temperatures below normal across the North Slope region this weekend along with passing precipitation, but moderate back towards normal as the upper ridge edges into the region by next week. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html