Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 639 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 12Z Tue May 31 2022 - 12Z Sat Jun 04 2022 ...Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights.. A fairly quiet weather pattern remains on tap for much of Alaska next week as persistent upper ridging centered over the Mainland looks to remain in place. This will separate an upper low well north of Alaska (which may send some troughing into the North Slope region) from a train of upper level/surface lows in the North Pacific and keep much of the interior mostly dry and very warm. Models suggest one fairly strong low should lift into the west-central Gulf of Alaska Tuesday/Wednesday with limited AKpen/Kodiak Island and maritime rain/wind threats. The weakening low will linger into mid-late next week as an emerging upstream closed upper trough/low with moderate main/triple point surface lows slowly transition eastward from just to the south of the unsettled Aleutians to a position well offshore over the central Gulf of Alaska that would only allow for light precipitation to work into the Alaskan south/southeast coasts. Overall, precipitation across most of Alaska should be generally quite modest. Much of interior Alaska will be quite warm with daytime highs averaging near 20 degrees above normal for some areas and fire weather a possible concern in the drier locations. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance solutions seem pretty well clustered overall at larger scales for much of the Alaskan domain and vicinity, but overall the 12 UTC GFS seems best clustered with the 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for a smoother blend days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday). In particular, this solution tends to downplay ECMWF/Canadian and in a different way UKMET shortwave tracking into the western periphery of the mainland upper ridge over western Alaska. This generally also maintains good WPC product continuity in a period of at least normal predictability through much of the forecast period. Applied targeted manual edits to offset the blending process to ensure sufficient offshore low depths consistent with upper support and predictability that is tempered as some guidance trends the later next week central Gulf low even farther to the south. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html