Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 542 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 01 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 05 2022 ...Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights.. The weather pattern still seems fairly benign for Alaska next week even though a main/warm upper ridge now shows some weakness in guidance over the Interior into mid-late week that offers better chances for local precipitation and some temperature moderation before reforming later period. This ridge will separate Arctic upper troughs/lows to the north of Alaska that may periodically force light precipitation focusing fronts into the North Slope from several closed upper level/surface lows in the North Pacific. A fairly strong low will lift into the west-central Gulf of Alaska into Wednesday, but offers only modest Kodiak Island and maritime rain/wind threats before slowly weakening over the southern Gulf. Meanwhile, a closed upper trough/low with moderate main/triple point surface lows will slowly transition eastward from just to the south of the unsettled Aleutians to a position well offshore over the western Gulf of Alaska. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance solutions still seem pretty well clustered overall at larger scales for much of the Alaskan domain and vicinity. However, it now seems more prudent to follow the latest mid-smaller scale trends of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian that have come into better agreement days 4/5 (Wed/Thu) both with the upper shortwave intrusion from the eastern Bering Sea into the mainland upper ridge and with the southward track of energies from the south of the Aleutians to the Gulf of Alaska. This was not the most likely solution I was expecting yesterday, versus holding onto the ridge more in particular, but was one of the reasonable scenarios. The ensemble mean solutions are more compatible by days 6-8 (Fri-next weekend) amid growing forecast spread and uncertainty and a composite of the GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seems a good way to go across the entire domain at these loner time frames, but did apply targeted manual edits to offset the blending process to ensure sufficient offshore low depths consistent with upper support and predictability in an overall pattern with near average predictability. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html