Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 614 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 04 2022 - 12Z Wed Jun 08 2022 ...Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights.. The extended period begins with a weak ridge over portions of the mainland that will decrease in strength with time and troughs to the northwest and northeast of the North Slope/northern tier of the state. This mean ridge separates Arctic upper troughs/lows to the north of Alaska that periodically force several fronts through the North Slope and northern Interior from several closed upper level/surface lows in the North Pacific. In this flow, a lead/lingering closed low and effects will slowly weaken well offshore over the southern/southeastern Gulf of Alaska this period. This will allow for slightly cooler temperatures initially before trending warmer. The same applies for increasing chances for showers early on before trending drier. There is however still some periodic chance for light to locally moderate precipitation over southern/southeast Alaska mainly later period with an uncertain series of easterly waves riding underneath the mean ridge. Meanwhile, a closed upper trough/low with main/triple point surface lows will slowly transition from just to the south of the unsettled Aleutians to well offshore over the western/southwestern Gulf of Alaska as a moderate maritime threat. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The current suite of guidance begins with above average confidence on the clustering of various features across the region but the degree of small, mid-level differences steadily increase as early as Sunday morning (June 5th). The impulses that are progged to trek across the higher latitudes and into the North Slope/Interior are captured in both the global and ensemble mean solutions however this is where the differences are the most impactful. Similar to the previous forecast cycle, the starting point of the medium range product suite utilized a general blend of the 12Z ECWMF/GFS/CMC/UKMET for day 4, reduced inclusion of the CMC and added 12Z GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for day 5 before transitioning to equal weighting of the 12Z GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for the rest of the periods. Although the later half of the forecast comprised of 100% ensemble means, the overall pattern has average to better predictability. Campbell/Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html