Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 751 PM EDT Wed Jun 01 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 05 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 09 2022 ...Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights.. A weak, mean ridge over portions of the Mainland will separate Arctic upper troughs/lows to the north of Alaska that periodically force several fronts through the North Slope and northern Interior from several closed upper level/surface lows in the North Pacific. In this flow, a lead/lingering closed low and effects will slowly weaken well offshore over the southern/southeastern Gulf of Alaska which will provide focus for some convection for the Interior. Additionally, cooler temperatures will trend warmer with time. Some periodic chance for light to locally moderate precipitation over southern/southeast Alaska as a series of easterly waves ride underneath the mean ridge. A closed upper trough/low with main/triple point surface lows will slowly transition from just to the south of the unsettled Aleutians to well offshore over the western/southwestern Gulf of Alaska as a moderate maritime threat. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The models continue to have two troughs near the Arctic Ocean, with one positioned to the northwest and one to the northeast of the North Slope. The past several forecast cycles have shown these two features fairly clustered for the first 1-2 days of the extended forecast before the small-scale differences increase. This remains true for this current run of the guidance. Additionally, the trend of a mean trough over the Gulf of Alaska/north Pacific Ocean will persist with multiples systems passing through the region. Overall the predictability of the large scale pattern and its evolution, particularly with the ensemble means, is above average even with small scale differences. The initial blend began with equal parts of the 12Z CMC/GFS/UKMET/GFS for the first 1-1.5 days before transitioning to 100% GEFS/NAEFS/ECWMF ensemble means for the mid and latter periods. Campbell Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html