Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 PM EDT Thu Jun 02 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 06 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 10 2022
...Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights..
A mean trough will be in place over the Gulf of Alaska/North
Pacific through the extended period. In this flow, a
lead/lingering closed low and effects will slowly weaken well
offshore over the southern/southeastern Gulf of Alaska which will
provide focus for some convection for the Interior. Scattered
convection is expected to develop across the Southwest and
South-central Mainland, waffling eastward toward East/Southeast
Alaska and back through the course of this forecast. Some periodic
chance for light to locally moderate precipitation over the
Panhandle as a series of easterly waves ride underneath the mean
ridge. Temperatures will moderate and trend warmer with time.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
For days the models have struggled with small-scale variances that
within the synoptic pattern beyond the day 4/5 period,
particularly with the location of the two trough near the North
Slope and Arctic region. Additionally, it has maintained the idea
of a mean trough with multiple lows cycling though and slowing
near the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The stance has been starting off
with a general model blend and then transitioning to mostly means
by middle and all means by the end of the extended period and that
was the approach taken once again given not much has changed since
the last cycle.
Campbell
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html