Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 07 2022 - 12Z Sat Jun 11 2022
...Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights..
A mean trough will persist over the Gulf of Alaska/North Pacific
through the week. A lead/lingering closed low and effects will
slowly weaken well offshore over the southern/southeastern Gulf of
Alaska which will provide focus for some convection for the
Interior. Scattered convection is expected to develop across the
Southwest and South-central Mainland, waffling eastward toward
East/Southeast Alaska and back through the course of this
forecast. Some periodic chance for light to locally moderate
precipitation over the Panhandle as a series of easterly waves
ride underneath the mean ridge. Temperatures will moderate and
trend warmer with time.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
For days the models have struggled with small-scale variances
within the synoptic pattern beyond the Day 4/5 period but the
latest suite of guidance is starting to have better definition at
least now into the Day 6 period. This trend suggested that the
operational guidance could be utilized through at least the first
half of the extended forecast with less weighting of the ensemble
means early on. Of note, the GFS is trying to form a secondary
low/shortwave trough a few hundred mile offshore the
Kenai/Southern Coast while the CMC and the ECWMF has a more subtle
area of energy further east toward the Southern Coast/Panhandle.
However this plays out, scattered areas of precipitation is
expected across the southern Mainland and portions of the
Southeast; which is depicted in both the operational models and
their respective ensemble means.
Campbell
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html