Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 PM EDT Tue Jun 07 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 11 2022 - 12Z Wed Jun 15 2022
...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance generally agrees that a retrograding upper low at
high latitudes/near northwest AK will help guide systems under its
base east to northeast into the AK Panhandle and that mid to upper
level ridging will build across eastern AK and the Yukon. The
biggest issue regarded a system sailing south of the Aleutians
into the Northeast Pacific, where the 12z ECMWF was a uniquely
slow outlier, even when compared to its ensemble mean -- for the
500 hPa heights and pressures reduced the percentage of the ECMWF
with time. Late in the period, increased the use of the 00z NAEFS
and ECMWF ensemble mean with time, ending up with equal weight of
the 12z GFS/12z Canadian and the ensemble means.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights..
For much of the period, this pattern is wet across South-Central
AK and the AK Panhandle. The guidance disagrees how much
precipitation could impact central and northwestern AK within the
warm conveyer belt of the departing upper low, but it is
reasonable to expected some precipitation given the upper pattern.
The Aleutians and northeast AK appear the most free of rain
between this Friday and next Wednesday. Portions of the AK are
expected to experience a warming trend as ridging pokes in from
the east. Overall, it should be mild to warm across southern and
central AK and chilly across the North Slope/northern AK coast.
Roth
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html