Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 653 PM EDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 12 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 16 2022 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The guidance generally agrees that a retrograding upper low at high latitudes/near northwest AK will help guide systems under its base generally south of Alaska, towards the Gulf, while mid to upper level ridging will also build across eastern AK and the Yukon. Guidance shows good agreement the first few days with this pattern, but after that some uncertainties begin to arise regarding the retrograding low towards the Bering and another deep low moving into the domain which may impact parts of the Aleutians by mid-next week. The 12z ECMWF seemed an outlier by day 6/Tuesday as it becomes displaced to the south with the upper low in the Bering, likely seeing more interaction with a low into the Gulf, and brings another compact upper low across the Arctic/northern Alaska. The ensemble means suggest something with more separation, more like the 12z GFS/CMC. There are some minor differences with the low towards the Aleutians late period, but nothing egregious considering a day 8 time frame. The WPC forecast blended the latest 12z deterministic guidance (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET) for days 4-5. For 6-8, leaned more on the ensemble means ending up with an equal weight of the ECENS/GEFS mean with some of the GFS and ECMWF (the CMC became fast/south with the Gulf low early on so it was excluded from the blend after day 5). This maintained reasonable WPC continuity. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... For much of the period, south-central Alaska and the Panhandle should be fairly wet. The guidance continues to show some disagreement on how much precipitation, but it's reasonable to expect some precipitation, especially within the warm conveyor belt of the departing upper low with some local terrain enhancements. The Aleutians and northern Alaska should be mostly rain free, until around the middle of next week when an upper low moves towards the Aleutians. Much of Alaska should see a general warming trend through the period as upper ridging tries to build over parts of the region. Overall, it should be mild to warm across central/western Alaska, and colder than normal across the North Slope, and portions of the Panhandle/southeast Alaska. Santorelli No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html