Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 551 PM EDT Thu Jun 09 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 13 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 17 2022 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Overall, the guidance shows pretty good agreement on an upper low initially near western Alaska lifting slowly to the north as upper ridging builds in over the Mainland. To the south, a surface low/frontal system will slide likely well south of the region. The GFS is farther north than consensus on this low, which would bring much higher rain chances to parts of the southern Coast/Kodiak Island. At this time, WPC favored a deterministic model blend closer to the 12z ECMWF through day 6 keeping the low farther offshore. By mid to later next week, a deeper low approaches the Aleutians with some lingering timing differences, though nothing too egregious considering the late period time frame. Utilizing more of the ensemble means (still with at least half deterministic models for added system definition and strength) for the day 7 and 8 period, provided a good starting point. This maintained reasonable WPC continuity both with yesterdays forecast as well as the forecast downstream over the CONUS. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... As the upper low meanders in the vicinity of western Alaska, and with moisture available to stream northward from the Gulf, much of central and southern Alaska can expect showers throughout much of next week. Some local enhancement is possible across favorable terrain, with potential for some moderate to locally heavier rains along the southern Coast/Kodiak Island though highly dependent on Gulf low positioning (the GFS is much wetter than the rest of the guidance at this point). A deeper low towards the Aleutians during the second half of next week offers a maritime threat, with some increasing rain chances into the western/central Aleutians and possible gusty winds. Northern Alaska may see a few showers, though should remain mostly rain free, with eastern Alaska also drying out the second half of next week. Much of Alaska begins the week near or below normal, though as the upper low begins to pull north allowing for upper ridging to build in, much of the state should begin to moderate by mid to later next week. Parts of western/interior Alaska should be mild to warm by later next week. Santorelli No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html