Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 553 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 14 2022 - 12Z Sat Jun 18 2022 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... With the upper low lifting out of northwest AK, the 12z Canadian was a unique outlier in bringing it back into the northwest part of the state while the other guidance continues its north to northwest drift; it was not considered useful beyond June 16/12z. With the cyclone moving into the Aleutian/AK Peninsula, the 12z GFS got quite speedy with the system. While the 12z ECMWF picked up the pace, it was the piece of guidance closest to the 12z NAEFS mean and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean overall, so used it as the deterministic part of the forecast late in the period using the ensemble means to slow it down somewhat. Due to the above issues, used more ensemble mean percentage than usual. Overall, the 500 hPa height and pressure/front preference fit Thursday's continuity rather well. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... As the upper low drifts slowly away from western Alaska, and with moisture available to stream northward from the Gulf, much of central and southern Alaska can expect showers throughout much of next week, with northeast AK overall the least cloudy much of next week. Some local enhancement is possible across favorable terrain, with potential for some moderate to locally heavier rains along the southern Coast/Kodiak Island. A deeper low moves near the Aleutians later next week and offers a maritime threat, with some increasing rain chances into the Aleutians and AK Panhandle and with gale-force winds and amounts of 2-4" of rain expected -- locally higher amounts are possible. Interior and Southern AK should remain mild to warm, with cooler readings in the usual spots along the coast, the Aleutians, and the North Slope. Roth/Santorelli No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html