Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
533 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022
...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance shows rather good agreement, both amongst the
deterministic and ensemble mean guidance, which also resemble one
another. There are some minor details such as the ECMWF being
stronger with a cold low moving towards the AK Panhandle early on,
and the strength of a system aloft and at the surface impacting
the Aleutians late next week. Used a blend of the 12z GFS, 12z
UKMET, 12z ECMWF, 12z Canadian early on for the pressures, fronts,
winds, and 500 hPa heights -- which should take care of the above
issues -- before shifting slowly in the direction of the 00z ECMWF
and 00z NAEFS ensemble means once we get past the end of the
UKMET's run. This solution kept reasonable continuity.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights...
An upper low scrapes northwest Alaska, and with moisture available
to stream northward from the Gulf towards this system, much of
central and southern Alaska can expect showers throughout much of
next week, with portions of northern AK overall the least cloudy.
Some local enhancement is possible across favored terrain. A deep
low moves near the Aleutians/AK Peninsula later next week and
offers a maritime threat, with some increasing rain chances into
the Aleutians and AK Panhandle and with gale-force winds with rain
amounts of 2-4" of rain expected. Interior and Southern AK should
remain mild to warm, with cooler readings in the usual spots along
the coast, the Aleutians, and the North Slope.
Roth
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html