Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 547 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 16 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 20 2022 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The guidance shows reasonable agreement, both amongst the deterministic and ensemble mean guidance, which also resemble one another. There is some progression spread amongst the guidance though they generally agree on the track of the mature cyclone moving near the Aleutians, AK Peninsula, and northeast Pacific late this weekend into early next week. The 12z Canadian weakened ridging in interior AK unlike the remainder of the guidance late this week into this weekend, which led to minimal inclusion. Used a blend of the 12z GFS, 12z UKMET, 12z ECMWF heavy blend early on for the pressures, fronts, winds, and 500 hPa heights -- which should take care of the above issues -- before shifting slowly in the direction of the 00z ECMWF and 00z NAEFS ensemble means once we get past the end of the UKMET's run. This solution kept reasonable continuity. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... An upper low scrapes northwest Alaska and reinforces a front across north and northwest AK. Moisture is available to stream northward from the Gulf towards this system, much of central and southern Alaska can expect showers throughout much of next week. Some local enhancement is possible across favored terrain. A deep low moves near the Aleutians/AK Peninsula late this week and offers a maritime threat, with gale-force winds with rain amounts of 2-4" expected. Overall, southern AK should be wettest this period. Interior and Southern AK should remain mild to warm, with cooler readings in the usual spots along the coast, the Aleutians, and the North Slope. Roth No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html