Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 16 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 20 2022
...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance shows reasonable agreement, both amongst the
deterministic and ensemble mean guidance, which also resemble one
another. There is some progression spread amongst the guidance
though they generally agree on the track of the mature cyclone
moving near the Aleutians, AK Peninsula, and northeast Pacific
late this weekend into early next week. The 12z Canadian weakened
ridging in interior AK unlike the remainder of the guidance late
this week into this weekend, which led to minimal inclusion. Used
a blend of the 12z GFS, 12z UKMET, 12z ECMWF heavy blend early on
for the pressures, fronts, winds, and 500 hPa heights -- which
should take care of the above issues -- before shifting slowly in
the direction of the 00z ECMWF and 00z NAEFS ensemble means once
we get past the end of the UKMET's run. This solution kept
reasonable continuity.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights...
An upper low scrapes northwest Alaska and reinforces a front
across north and northwest AK. Moisture is available to stream
northward from the Gulf towards this system, much of central and
southern Alaska can expect showers throughout much of next week.
Some local enhancement is possible across favored terrain. A deep
low moves near the Aleutians/AK Peninsula late this week and
offers a maritime threat, with gale-force winds with rain amounts
of 2-4" expected. Overall, southern AK should be wettest this
period. Interior and Southern AK should remain mild to warm, with
cooler readings in the usual spots along the coast, the Aleutians,
and the North Slope.
Roth
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html