Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 18 2022 - 12Z Wed Jun 22 2022
...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance shows reasonable agreement, both amongst the
deterministic and ensemble mean guidance, which also resemble one
another. The guidance agrees on the track of the mature/weakening
cyclone moving from the AK Peninsula,towards the AK Panhandle
between late this weekend and early next week. Used a blend of
the 12z GFS, 12z UKMET, 12z ECMWF, and 12z Canadian early on for
the pressures, fronts, winds, and 500 hPa heights before shifting
slowly in the direction of the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and 00z
NAEFS ensemble means once we get past the end of the UKMET's run.
This solution kept reasonable continuity.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights...
Shortwaves brushing by northwest Alaska reinforce a front across
north and northwest AK which remains quasi-stationary until an
occluded cyclone approaches late this weekend into early next
week, lifting it into the Arctic Ocean. Moisture is available to
stream northward from the Gulf within the southwest flow aloft,
much of eastern and southern Alaska can expect showers from late
this week into next Monday. Some local enhancement is possible
across favored terrain. A deep low moves from the AK Peninsula
towards the AK Panhandle this weekend into early next week with a
decreasing maritime threat with time other than previously
generated swell. Overall, southern and eastern should be wettest
this period, though drying is noted early next week. Better
chances for clearing skies are in northern portions of the state
and early next week down south. Interior and Southern AK should
remain mild to warm, with cooler readings in the usual spots along
the coast, the Aleutians, and the North Slope.
Roth
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html