Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 658 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 23 2022 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Upper pattern will feature a slowly but steadily moving upper low pushing eastward across the Gulf of Alaska early next week, eventually into the southern Panhandle and British Columbia by next Wed/Thu. Troughing initially in northeastern Russia will lift into the Bering Strait as ridging from the north central Pacific pokes northeastward across the Aleutians and into southwestern Alaska. The models and ensembles showed good to better-than-average agreement, and a blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian sufficed to start. The 12Z ECMWF became (again) quite aggressive with height falls into northwestern Alaska around next Wed, against the majority of ensembles--one cluster of 4, with 22% of the membership of the GEFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles, showed average heights across northern Alaska at the end of next week (not even below average). Preferred the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean by the end of the period, which was a bit more amplified than the GEFS mean over the North Pacific as another trough in the northwestern Pacific should help maintain some amplitude (with agreement from the 12Z Canadian ensembles). This solution kept reasonable continuity. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Rainfall will focus over Southcentral into the Panhandle ahead of and north of the upper low/sfc occlusion Sun-Mon, especially over southeastern-facing areas on the Kenai Peninsula. Showers will linger over the Panhandle until height start to rise later next week. A stationary boundary across the North Slope/Brooks Range will promote another area of rain and some high mountain snow until the boundary dissipates. Typical surface trough north of the Alaska Range will spark some showers as well with daytime heating. Trend will be toward drier conditions by the end of next week with ridging and high pressure. Temperatures will be near to below normal over Southcentral into the Panhandle as well as northeastern Alaska, but near to above normal over western areas. Trend will be toward milder temperatures overall through the week. Fracasso No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html