Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 20 2022 - 12Z Fri Jun 24 2022 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The upper pattern will feature a slowly but steadily moving upper low pushing eastward across the Gulf of Alaska early next week, eventually into the southern Panhandle and British Columbia by next Wed/Thu. Troughing initially in northeastern Russia will lift into the Bering Strait as ridging from the north central Pacific pokes northeastward across the Aleutians and into southwestern Alaska. There was reasonably good model agreement for the closed upper low trekking east through the Gulf for the first half of next week along with the ridging behind. The 12Z GFS though ends up a bit north of consensus across the Panhandle Wed with the centroid of the upper low and lingers it over the Panhandle Thu unlike other guidance, so preferred a model blend of the 12Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET with some incorporation of the 06Z GFS for this feature. Upstream, upper troughing and an associated surface low approaching the Aleutians for the latter part of next week shows to be faster in the GFS/GEFS than the CMC/EC cluster. Leaned more toward the latter considering typical model behavior. Meanwhile farther north of the ridge, there are some rounds of troughing possible for northwestern Alaska at times, which show some variability with the details and some phasing differences, but a deterministic model/ensemble mean blend made for reasonable compromises there. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Moist inflow associated with the Gulf of Alaska lows will promote rainy conditions for the Panhandle streaming into eastern parts of the mainland especially for the first half of next week. There could be some terrain enhancement of amounts for parts of the Alaska Range where a typical surface trough should set up, and across parts of the North Slope/Brooks Range in the vicinity of a stationary boundary. The trend will be toward drier conditions by the latter part of the week over the mainland with ridging and high pressure, though rain chances may increase for the Aleutians just ahead of a low pressure system. Temperatures will be near to below normal over southeastern Alaska into the Panhandle initially, though moderating/warming later next week. Southwestern to Southcentral Alaska should gradually warm to above normal through next week as well. Periods of cooler than normal high temperatures are likely for the Brooks Range into the North Slope, however. Tate/Fracasso No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html