Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 541 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 23 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 27 2022 ...Overview... An increasingly ridgy pattern will be seen in and near southeast AK from this weekend onward, with a couple deep layer cyclones across the Bering Sea/Aleutians from late this week into early next week. Temperatures overall will be above average. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The guidance shows reasonable agreement early; a compromise of the 12z GFS, 12z Canadian, 12z UKMET, and 12z ECMWF resolves any small issues. While the guidance shows some dispersion near the Aleutians late in the period at 500 hPa and the surface, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian show surprising agreement on the 5 day QPF covering day 4-8/Thursday into next Sunday. There are some differences upstream across and north of Siberia that impact frontal progression towards northwest AK. To deal with the 500 hPa and surface pressure issues, used increasing amounts of the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and 12z NAEFS mean with time, eventually becoming half of the overall blend. The remainder of the grids are based on a more even blend of deterministic and ensemble mean guidance, the National Blend of Models. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... The Aleutians and western mainland Alaska should be the cloudiest and rainiest, with 1-2" of rain and gale force winds (35-40 kts) expected in the Aleutians Thursday into Friday, between an area of low pressure to the west and a near-record strong high pressure system for June near Cold Bay. After a shortwave aloft a cold front pass by interior AK, leading to some temperature moderation late this week, southeast AK will become under the aegis of strengthening mid-level ridging and partly cloudy skies this weekend into early next week -- the clearest region of AK between Thursday and next Sunday. Temperatures will become hot for interior southern and southeast AK from this weekend onward, with highs in the 80s expected. Cooler conditions will be expected right along the coast, the Aleutians, and Brooks Range, but even there,=, it will be warm when compared to June standards. Roth No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html