Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
630 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 24 2022 - 12Z Tue Jun 28 2022
...Overview...
An upper level ridge is forecast to be in place across much of the
state and western Canada to close out the week and into the
weekend, and probably last into early next week. There will be a
few low pressure systems over the North Pacific, south of the main
ridge axis, and a strong low pressure system over the Arctic will
result in a cold front approaching northwestern Alaska by the
weekend, but it is not expected to make much southward progress
into the state.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The 12Z deterministic model guidance is in good synoptic scale
agreement across the Alaska domain through about Sunday. By late
Sunday, the CMC becomes more progressive with the Arctic trough
crossing northern Alaska and loses ensemble support, and also
stronger with the ridge axis across mainland Alaska, so more of
the GFS/ECMWF were incorporated for the latter half of the
forecast period along with some previous WPC continuity. More of
the ECENS/GEFS was used for next Monday and Tuesday to account for
greater mesoscale differences.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights...
The Aleutians and far western mainland Alaska should have the
greatest rainfall chances and cloud cover, with locally heavy rain
and gusty winds expected for portions of the Aleutians Thursday
night into Friday, between an area of low pressure to the west and
a rather strong high pressure system for June near Cold Bay.
After a shortwave aloft and cold front pass by the Interior,
leading to some cooler temperatures late this week, the southeast
portion of the state will be under the main ridge axis, and partly
cloudy skies this weekend into early next week are expected.
Temperatures will become very warm for interior southern and
southeast Alaska for the weekend, with highs in the 80s expected.
Cooler conditions will be expected right along the coast, the
Aleutians, and Brooks Range, but still warm when compared to June
standards.
Hamrick
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html