Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 709 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 27 2022 - 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights... The strong upper ridge drifting over the mainland and northwestern Canada should promote a broad area of above to much above normal temperatures during the period, albeit with the center of an eastern mainland/northwestern Canada upper ridge gradually drifting more into Canada by the middle of next week. Expect the most notable/impactful anomalies to be over the Interior and Panhandle. The Panhandle may see the greatest departures from normal and best potential for a few locations to challenge daily records. Farther west, an upper trough with embedded low should persist over the Bering Sea and Aleutians for most of the period. A main but modest surface low is now expected to track into the Aleutians/Bering Sea by early next week and spread lead/wrapping moderate precipitation across the Aleutians and into the AKpen/Kodiak Island/southern AK as well as up into Southwest/Western Alaska with approach during the course of next week. Upstream, another system emerging from the western Pacific may start to influence the Aleutians after midweek. A deep upper low initially north of Siberia is still likely to remain well northwest/north of the mainland, but some differences persist for how surrounding flow could influence the northern mainland. The North Slope may see episodes of light precipitation if a front to the north gets close enough to the region. Elsewhere, expect precipitation to be lighter and more scattered over most areas given the prevalence of upper ridging. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Guidance now seem pretty well clustered through medium range time scales, bolstering confidence in the larger scale pattern evolution. However, the scale and complexity of flow embedded systems still offer lingering uncertainties. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian for days 4-6 (Mon-Wed) and then added the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means into the composite in place of the UKMET for days 6/7 (next Thursday/Friday). Product continuity is decently maintained and individual system forecast differences seem well addressed with this blending process, consistent with predictability. Schichtel Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Thu, Jun 26-Jun 30. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html