Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 616 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 28 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 02 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather and Hazard Highlights... It remains the case that strong upper ridge drifting over the mainland and northwestern Canada should promote a broad area of above to much above normal temperatures during much of this period, albeit with the center of an eastern mainland/northwestern Canada upper ridge gradually drifting more into Canada by the middle of next week. Expect the most notable/impactful anomalies to be over the Interior and especially the Panhandle. The Panhandle may see the greatest departures from normal and best potential for a few locations to challenge daily records into early next week. Farther west, an upper trough with embedded low should persist over the Bering Sea and Aleutians for most of the period. A main surface low is expected to track into the Aleutians/Bering Sea by early next week and spread widespread lead/wrapping moderate precipitation across the Aleutians and into the AKpen/Kodiak Island/southern AK as well as up into Southwest/Western then Interior Alaska with approach during the course of next week while lifting/shearing around the western periphery of the upper ridge along with increasing moisture. Upstream, another system emerging from the western Pacific may start to influence the Aleutians after midweek and with much uncertainty could then shear northeastward toward the mainland. A deep upper low over the Arctic Ocean is still likely to remain well northwest/north of the mainland, but some differences persist for how surrounding flow could influence the northern mainland. The North Slope may see episodes of light precipitation if a front to the north gets close enough to the region. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... It was noted that despite good overall guidance clustering yesterday, the complex nature of systems might still temper predictability. This is now more evident as model and ensemble solutions are more diverse today, increasingly from day 5-8. A model composite blend of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian seems fine for day4/Tue before opting for a transition day5/Wed to a composite of just the latest GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means. WPC product continuity is well maintained in this manner, albeit with less system detail consistent with uncertainty. Schichtel Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon-Wed, Jun 27-Jun 29. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html