Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 732 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 29 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 03 2022 ...Overview... Warm upper ridging over much of the mainland and Panhandle midweek will slowly shift eastward as an upper trough/low initially in the Bering Sea moves toward and across western Alaska. This will lead to cooling temperatures as well as increasing rain chances generally from west to east across Alaska as the latter part of the week progresses. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Model agreement is rather good with the general large scale pattern described above, but with differences in the details, particularly on timing of the trough moving eastward and details of energy within it. The ECMWF suite is generally faster with the eastward movement of the trough than the GFS/GEFS and CMC/CMCE suites. The 12Z deterministic ECMWF may be questionable as it is quicker/more northeast with the upper low within the trough Thursday-Friday, but not necessarily out of the realm of possibilities. Preferred the GFS/CMC, but had some EC mean in today's model blend as well for a nod toward a faster solution. Compared to continuity, utilizing mostly deterministic models early on led the trough to be somewhat deeper and narrower. But by next weekend, details of the flow go more awry and transitioned quickly to a blend favoring the ensemble mean guidance. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Temperatures will continue to be rather warm across much of the state midweek under the upper ridge, generally 10-15F above normal especially for lows. Warmth over the Panhandle could lead to a couple of record highs Wednesday. These temperatures are forecast to get gradually shunted eastward as troughing influences western Alaska and beyond, underneath which below average highs and about average lows are likely. The far eastern mainland and parts of the Panhandle may stay above average into next weekend as the ridge stalls. Just ahead of the approaching trough and a surface low pressure system, moisture will increase and lead to rainfall chances first for the Aleutians Wednesday and then spreading into the western mainland and Alaska Peninsula Thursday-Friday, into central Alaska Friday-Saturday, and much of the mainland over the weekend, though perhaps lessening amounts with the eastward progression. The North Slope may see episodes of light precipitation if a front to the north gets close enough to the region. Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html