Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 723 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 04 2022 - 12Z Fri Jul 08 2022 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Upper pattern will slowly transition toward more troughing out of the Bering Sea next week as the upper high over NW Canada retreats to the southeast. This will introduce cooler temperatures to the mainland with increased rain chances. The ensembles were in very good agreement through the end of next week, with expected differences in the speed and depth of the incoming trough per the cluster analysis, but that is well within the typical spread for a 7-8 day forecast. Thus, a multi-model/ensemble blend was sufficient for the forecast. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF paired best with the ensemble consensus, while the 12Z Canadian was mostly in line for the first couple of days. The 12Z UKMET diverged from the consensus before day 4, and was not preferred. Surface pattern will likely be devoid of any significant/robust system, and will rather feature a lead baroclinic boundary progressing eastward in tandem with the upper trough, with a wave of low pressure possible along the front south of the Aleutians that may lift toward the AKPen and Southcentral late next week. Deterministic models differ on its strength but favor a weak area of low pressure as of the latest cycle. With increased uncertainty in these details by next Thu/Fri, incorporated about a 50% weighting of the ensemble means to balance the deterministic GFS/ECMWF. Confidence is above average overall. 19Z NBM was a good starting point for the sensible weather grids. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Well above normal temperatures at the start of the period (Mon Jul 4) over eastern Interior locations will trend back toward more typical values by midweek as cooler temperatures spread eastward from the Bering. By late in the period, much of the mainland will see below normal temperatures. 70s and low 80s will be replaced by upper 50s to around 70 degrees through the period. Dry weather will prevail for the first half of the period as the upper ridge axis moves through. By midweek, rain chances will increase as southwest flow brings in more moisture from the North Pacific. Slowly-moving frontal boundary just southeast of the Aleutians may enhance rainfall over Kodiak into the southeastern Kenai Peninsula to Prince William Sound, depending on the trough orientation/strength and surface front. Regardless, most of the state will see some welcome rain next week. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html