Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 26 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 30 2022 ...Heavy rain possible across portions of the southern Alaska and the Southeast coast through Tuesday... ...High winds possible Monday and Tuesday across parts of Southwest to portions of the northern Interior... ...General Overview... Two low pressure systems will lift northward up through the western half of the Mainland, bringing rounds of moderate to heavy rain to parts of the south and northwest portion of the Panhandle along with strong wind gusts from the Southwest. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Overall, the latest guidance is handling the evolution of the large scale pattern fairly well even though there are periods where there are greater model spread with the timing, depth and location of various features. The most recent runs of the GFS are trend back toward the rest of guidance and less of an outlier. The ECWMF/CMC and the respective means have been the preferred solutions the past several days with light inclusion of the UKMET and GFS. Today that remains true but more of the GFS was utilized in the WPC model blend. With improvement in the clustering during the day 6 and 7 periods, the weighting of the mean made up less than 50% of blend. ...Sensible Weather... Through the course of the extended forecast a potent upper-level low and related surface low pressure system will track northward from the Bering Sea along the western coastline. Temperatures will cool through midweek, with several locations to likely to be cooler than the climatological mean for late July. Temperatures will begin to moderate/warm across the Southwest as weak ridging moves into the area in the wake of the first system. Another low will be lifting through the Aleutians by the mid/late periods. Overnight lows are forecast to ranging from the 30s to the low 50s. The daily maximums will mostly range from the 40s to 60s, however a few locations may actually reach the low 70s. Strong wind gusts will be possible Monday and Tuesday from the Southwest to the Brooks Range with this system. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will pass over the southern part of the state this weekend and the beginning of the week. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through Tuesday July 26th which may lead to areas that receive excessive rainfall and develop localized flooding concerns. During this time 3 to 7 inches of rainfall is forecast with isolated higher amounts possible. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Jul 24-Jul 26. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jul 25-Jul 26. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html