Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 633 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 26 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 30 2022 ***Heavy rain possible across portions of southeast Alaska through Tuesday and high winds possible Tuesday across western portions of the state*** ...General Overview... An anomalous cold upper low will be in place across western Alaska for early next week along with below average temperatures. This is forecast to weaken going into the middle to end of the week as a weak ridge axis tries to build ahead of the next trough across the Aleutians. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite is in very good overall agreement for the beginning of next week and even into Wednesday, and agree on weakening the deep upper low over the northwestern mainland, although the GFS is slightly slower in doing so. By the end of next week, models generally agree on height rises across the mainland ahead of an amplifying trough over the Aleutians. The CMC is among the strongest with the Aleutians trough compared to the weaker and more progressive ECMWF/GFS by next Saturday, but overall differences at this time scale are less than typically seen. Therefore, some deterministic guidance can be maintained through the entire extended forecast period, whilst keeping contributions from the ECENS/GEFS less than 50%. ...Sensible Weather...60s Through the course of the extended forecast period, a potent upper-level low and related surface low pressure system will track northward from the Bering Sea along the western coastline. Temperatures will remain cool through midweek, with many locations expected to be below normal for late July. However, readings will begin to moderate/warm across the Southwest as weak ridging moves into the area in the wake of the first system. Another low is expected to cross the Aleutians by the middle to end of the week. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the 30s over the Arctic Coast, to the 40s and low 50s elsewhere. The daily maximums will likely range from the 50s to 60s south of the Brooks Range, however a few locations may actually reach the low 70s. Strong wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday from the Southwest to the Brooks Range with the Bering low pressure system. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through next Tuesday, which may lead to areas that receive excessive rainfall and develop localized flooding concerns. During this time, 3 to 6+ inches of rainfall is forecast with isolated higher amounts possible. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jul 25-Jul 26. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jul 25-Jul 26. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html