Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 630 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 27 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 31 2022 ...General Overview... An anomalous cold upper low will be in place across northern Alaska for the middle of next week along with below average temperatures. This is forecast to weaken going into the end of the week as a weak ridge axis tries to build across central/southern Alaska ahead of the next trough across the Aleutians. Thus, unsettled weather can be expected at times across the North Slope and also for the southern coastal areas going into next weekend. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good overall agreement going into the middle of next week, and generally agree on height rises across the central and southern mainland by the end of the week ahead of an amplifying trough over the Aleutians. However, the UKMET and to a lesser degree the CMC, stand out with upper level troughing persisting a bit longer with a stronger arctic trough north of the Brooks Range. By later in the forecast period, the GFS and ECMWF maintain a more well defined trough over the general vicinity of the Alaska Peninsula, whereas the CMC is oriented differently and placed farther west with less support from the ensemble means. Therefore, some deterministic GFS/ECMWF can be maintained through the entire extended forecast period, whilst gradually increasing contributions from the ECENS/GEFS. ...Sensible Weather... Through the middle of next week, a weakening upper-level low and related surface low pressure system will track eastward, just north of the Arctic Coast. Temperatures will remain cool through much of the week, with many locations expected to be below normal by late July standards. However, readings will begin to moderate/warm across the southern half of the state as weak ridging moves into the area in the wake of the first system. Another low is expected to cross the Aleutians by the middle to end of the week, and eventually reaching near the Kenai Peninsula by Saturday, bringing additional rounds of showers across much of the southern mainland. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the 30s over the Arctic Coast, to the 40s and low 50s elsewhere. The daily maximums will likely range from the 50s to 60s south of the Brooks Range, however a few locations may actually reach the low to perhaps mid 70s. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html