Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 555 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 28 2022 - 12Z Mon Aug 1 2022 ...General Overview... The persistent upper low and deep trough that has been present across much of Alaska is forecast to lift out and weaken by the middle of the week as a more typical July pattern tries to become established during the extended forecast period. The next system to watch will be a well defined surface low tracking across the Aleutians for the end of the week, and this should reach the northern Gulf region by next Sunday in a weakened state. A brief period of upper level ridging is expected for the southern half of the state ahead of the trough, but still remaining rather chilly north of the Brooks Range. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite has very good synoptic scale agreement through the end of the week across the Alaska domain, with the greatest differences noted across the Arctic Coast region with respect to the placement of the polar low (UKMET/GFS farther east than the CMC/ECMWF). By the weekend, the CMC is slower with the low across the Bering/Aleutians, whereas the GFS becomes more potent with the low as it emerges over the northern Gulf region. By next Monday, the ECMWF becomes stronger with another low approaching the western Aleutians, but reasonably close in position compared to the ensemble means and the CMC/GFS. The WPC forecast is primarily based on a deterministic blend through Friday, and then transitioning to about half ECENS/GEFS and half CMC/ECMWF/GFS. ...Sensible Weather... Much of the state is expected to have a gradual warming trend going into the middle to end of the week, in contrast to the below average readings in the short range forecast period. The exception will likely be from the Brooks Range northward where cold weather will likely persist a bit longer and not feel like summer. Highs will likely reach the 70s across much of the lower elevations of the Interior going into the weekend. The southeast panhandle region will also likely have warmer than average temperatures owing to the upper level ridge in place across southwestern Canada. In the precipitation department, most of the state should be dry on Thursday ahead of the next storm system, which will increase rainfall prospects going into Friday and the weekend from the eastern Aleutians to the Kenai Peninsula. Some lighter showers should also affect interior portions of mainland Alaska as well. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html