Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 628 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 29 2022 - 12Z Tue Aug 2 2022 ...General Overview... A more typical July pattern tries to become established during the extended forecast period compared to the anomalous trough and cold weather that has been in place. The next system to watch will be a well defined surface low tracking across the Aleutians for the end of the week, and this should reach the northern Gulf region by next Sunday in a weakened state. A brief period of upper level ridging is expected for the southern half of the state ahead of the trough, but still remaining rather chilly north of the Brooks Range. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite has good synoptic scale agreement through the end of the week across the Alaska domain, with the greatest differences noted across the Arctic Coast region with respect to the placement of the retreating polar low. By the weekend, the models are trending towards the idea of the low across the Bering/Aleutians splitting into two separate surface lows, with greater model spread on how this process evolves. By next Monday, the ECMWF is stronger with another low approaching the western Aleutians and farther west than the consensus, with the GFS on the more progressive side. The WPC forecast is primarily based on a deterministic blend through Saturday, and then transitioning to about half ECENS/GEFS and half CMC/ECMWF/GFS going into early next week. ...Sensible Weather... Pleasant temperatures are expected across much of central and southern Alaska to close out the week and going into the weekend. The exception will likely be from the Brooks Range northward where cold weather will likely persist a bit longer and not feel like summer. Highs will likely reach the 70s across much of the lower elevations of the Interior going into the weekend. The southeast panhandle region will also likely have warmer than average temperatures through Saturday owing to the upper level ridge in place across southwestern Canada. In the precipitation department, most of the state should be dry on Friday ahead of the next storm system, which will increase rainfall prospects going into Saturday and Sunday from the eastern Aleutians to the Kenai Peninsula. Some lighter showers should also affect interior portions of mainland Alaska as well. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html