Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 31 2022 - 12Z Thu Aug 04 2022 ...General Overview... A well defined surface low will track across the Aleutians for the end of the week, likely reaching the northern Gulf region by next Sunday in a weakened state. A brief period of upper level ridging is expected for the southern half of the state ahead of the trough, but still remaining rather chilly north of the Brooks Range. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest run of the models are handling the overall large scale pattern fairly well with typical spread in specific details. The greatest differences remain with the location of retreating polar low across the Arctic Coast region. There is also spread with a low progged to cross the Bering Sea/Aleutians splitting into two separate surface lows. Of the solutions, the ECWMF continues to be stronger and on the west side of the cluster while the GFS is faster and on the east side. The timing and strength differences is resulting in QPF placements from the GFS (at times from the CMC) over portions northern portions of the Mainland and higher amounts over the west/southwest Mainland when compared to the ECWMF and the ensemble means. The initial WPC blend was comprised of the ECWMF/CMC/GFS through early Sunday, and then transitioning to a weighting of about 35 percent ECENS/GEFS by the end of the extended. ...Sensible Weather... Seasonable temperatures are expected for a large portion of central and southern Alaska where daily maximums will be in the 50s to 60s, with some 70s in the lower elevations of the Interior going into the weekend. The daily minimums will be brisk, mainly in the 30s, for the Brooks range and areas to the north during the weekend before trending warmer for the start of the week. The southeast panhandle region will also likely have warmer than average temperatures through Saturday owing to the upper level ridge in place across southwestern Canada. Scattered rain is expected across parts of the interior, southern Mainland and the Southwest as a surface low pressure system lifts northward through the region. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html