Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 553 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 31 2022 - 12Z Thu Aug 4 2022 ...General Overview... A quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft is forecast to be in place across the North Pacific with a couple of low pressure systems expected to affect southern Alaska. The first will likely emerge from the Aleutians and cross the Bering through Monday night, and the next will likely approach the Aleutians by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, a strong surface high is forecast to remain anchored in place north of the Arctic Coast, keeping conditions cooler north of the Brooks Range through the beginning of the week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite initially has a good overall depiction of the weather pattern for the weekend and even going into Monday. By early Tuesday, guidance differs on the weakening of the Bering low across the southwest mainland, with the main difference being a slower CMC solution. Going into the middle of the week, the CMC is notably stronger with the ridge axis extending north across the Gulf and even the southern mainland, and has very limited ensemble support. The ECMWF is directly at odds at this same general time with a well defined trough axis, and the GFS also have a resemblance of a trough across southern Alaska as well. Therefore, a general model blend will suffice for Sunday and Monday, and then removing the CMC for the latter half of the forecast period whilst increasing contributions from the ensemble means. This results in an overall faster progression of fronts across the Aleutians and Gulf region compared to yesterday's forecast. ...Sensible Weather... Seasonable temperatures are expected for a large portion of the central and southern mainland for the weekend, with some 70s for highs likely for the lower elevations of the Interior, followed by a slight cooling trend as increased cloud cover from the low pressure systems moves in. This will also include coastal portions of the state and extending eastward to include the southeast Panhandle region. Even the northern third of the state will likely get to enjoy a moderating trend in the recent cold weather as southerly winds ahead of the next storm system advect warmer air across the region. In term of precipitation, scattered to perhaps numerous showers are expected across parts of the interior, the southern Mainland, and the Alaska Peninsula as a surface low pressure system lifts northward through the region. The good news is no areas of hazardous weather are currently anticipated at this time. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html