Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 725 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 01 2022 - 12Z Fri Aug 05 2022 ...General Overview... During the medium range period, a strong upper high will retrograde through the mid-latitudes between Alaska and Hawai'i, allowing for progressive flow to its north across the higher latitudes out of the Bering Sea and through much of mainland Alaska. Within the flow, two distinct features will affect the 49th state: the first Mon-Wed and the second Wed-Fri next week. Each will carry with it the chance for light to modest rain over southern areas of the mainland. Northern areas will remain largely quiet and cooler than normal. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The models/ensembles have mostly sped up with the timing of the lead system out of the Bering and then moving quickly across Southcentral Tuesday and into (and out of) the Panhandle by Wednesday, with a lingering upper/sfc low in the northeastern Gulf. The 12Z ECMWF was quicker than the rest of the 12Z guidance, but given the shift quicker already by a general consensus opted to rely on the multi-model blend that was about 2/3rds closer to the GFS-led cluster vs the quicker ECMWF. Progressive pattern would allow for a quicker pattern but that can be reassessed tomorrow. The second system has trended more robust and have depicted it as a developed wave along the front attached to the lead system, moving through the Bering later next week into Southwestern Alaska by the end of the week. With additional timing differences increasing by then, included more ensemble mean weighting from the ECMWF ensembles and GEFS mean. The 12Z Canadian actually had a good middle ground solution between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS, so weighted that model a bit more to day 8. Confidence was about average given the good agreement but the quicker pattern leaves room to progress the systems faster than progged, should trends continue. ...Sensible Weather... Temperatures will generally be near to below normal for much of the state with abundant clouds associated with each system. Clearing in between would allow for a bit milder temperatures into the 70s in the Tanana Valley. Some areas of the North Slope may see above normal temperatures with offshore flow. Rainfall will progress from west to east across areas south of the Arctic Circle with generally light amounts, but areas of the Alaska Range could see more appreciable amounts on SW to S flow. The Panhandle may have a couple days of showery conditions as the upper low (and weak surface low) will be slow to push through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday. A frontal boundary in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic Ocean may bring some showers to the North Slope later next week after high pressure retreats into the Canadian archipelago. Fracasso Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html